Who will win the 2027 Kenya presidential election?

KES 15M VolPoliticsEnds Aug 2027

01234567890123456789%chance that William Ruto will win

William RutoKalonzo MusyokaFred Matiang'iDavid MaragaOther

Live

Outcome graph

William Ruto41%

Kalonzo Musyoka22%

Fred Matiang'i18%

David Maraga11%

Other8%

Resolves to the candidate declared President-elect by the IEBC, after any Supreme Court petition is determined.

Oracle source: IEBC Form 34C declaration and Supreme Court judgment

[RUTO @ 50%]2h

Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.

[KALONZO @ 50%]1h

Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.

[RUTO @ 50%]48m

Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.

[KALONZO @ 50%]5h

Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.

Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.