Markets
CBK
Will CBK cut the base rate below 9% at the December MPC?
KES 850k VolEconomyEnds Dec 9
01234567890123456789%chance that Yes will win
YesNo
Live
Yes62%
No38%
Resolves YES if the Central Bank of Kenya announces a Central Bank Rate strictly below 9.00% following its December 2026 MPC meeting. Resolves NO otherwise.
Oracle source: Central Bank of Kenya official MPC press release (centralbank.go.ke)
Discussion 3
[YES @ 62%]2h
Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.
[NO @ 38%]1h
Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.
[YES @ 62%]48m
Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.
[NO @ 38%]5h
Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.
6h
Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.