$/KSh

Will USD/KES close above 130 on Dec 31?

KES 420k VolEconomyEnds Dec 31

01234567890123456789%chance that Yes will win

YesNo

Live

Outcome graph

Yes35%

No65%

Resolves YES if the CBK published mean USD/KES rate for Dec 31, 2026 is above 130.00.

Oracle source: CBK daily foreign exchange rates

[YES @ 35%]2h

Inflation prints have been soft three months running. The data is pointing one way only.

[NO @ 65%]1h

Shilling pressure from the Eurobond repayment says otherwise. Don't sleep on it.

[YES @ 35%]48m

Reserves are at 4.8 months of import cover. Plenty of buffer.

[NO @ 65%]5h

Small position as a hedge. Implied probabilities look too stretched for me.

Volume spiked 3x after the morning headline. Watching closely.